Sunday, October 4, 2026
Some Sundays invite you to switch off.
And then there are Sundays when it is worth looking a little further than your coffee cup, because while we are having breakfast, the world carries on doing what it does best.
Here in Málaga, we are having something of a weather truce today. After many days of sunshine and heat, we woke up to an overcast sky and a 55% chance of rain. But if it does arrive, it will probably just stop by to say hello — barely 5 mm per square metre.
Nothing like the deluge currently pouring down over the eastern Mediterranean.
In the financial markets, despite the rises, the storm is brewing underneath the surface.
And there are several issues worth keeping firmly on the radar.
Housing is back in the spotlight
Spanish politics has once again given us one of those situations that seem almost designed to make sure nobody quite understands what is going on.
Last Friday, October 2, Spain’s Congress rejected Royal Decree-Laws 26/2026 and 27/2026 concerning housing measures.
Beyond the political battle, there is a very simple consequence: housing remains one of Spain’s major economic and social problems.
And when a problem affects house prices, rents, savings and families’ ability to make ends meet, it stops being exclusively political.
It becomes economic.
And social.
And a source of public protest.
Ukraine, Russia and the word that is once again calling the shots: energy
While Europe continues to look eastwards, the war between Russia and Ukraine continues to have one particularly uncomfortable consequence for the markets: energy.
Oil and gas do not need to appear in the headlines every day to continue influencing inflation, business costs and consumers’ spending power.
Brent crude is trading around $102 a barrel, a level high enough to deserve our attention.
Because oil has that curious ability to turn up in our lives even if we never buy a single barrel.
It is in transport.
It is in industry.
It is in electricity and in countless products we use every day.
And eventually, it finds its way onto the bill.
And then there is gas, whose price in Europe is close to tripling and is now around €70/MWh.
The US and Iran: another source of tension
The other major front we need to watch is the relationship between the United States and Iran.
And then there are the tentacles of the octopus: the Houthis getting involved with Saudi Arabia, Hezbollah clashing with Israel, Shiite groups in Syria fighting everyone else…
…and my friend Juan, getting into an argument with everyone in the neighbourhood.
Yes, that is roughly how complicated the Middle East feels at the moment.
Any escalation of tensions in the region could have an immediate impact on energy markets and, consequently, on inflation expectations.
And the markets have a perfectly understandable obsession with inflation.
Because if oil rises too much, central banks may have less room to cut interest rates.
And when interest rates take longer to come down, money becomes more expensive.
And when money becomes more expensive, somebody usually ends up paying the bill.
You and me.
What should we be watching in the markets?
Although it is Sunday and European stock markets are closed, the market is not completely asleep.
Over the next few hours and, above all, ahead of Monday’s opening, I would keep a close eye on:
- DAX
- IBEX 35
- FTSE 100
- S&P 500
- Nasdaq
- Dow Jones
- EUR/USD
- Gold
- Oil
- Natural Gas
- Bitcoin
It is not about trying to guess what they will do tomorrow.
That is precisely what I am most interested in avoiding when we talk about trading.
It is about being prepared.
A trader does not need to know what is going to happen.
A trader needs to know what they will do if it happens.
And that difference, although it may seem small, is enormous.
The week begins with several questions
Will pressure on oil continue?
Will the dollar remain strong against the euro?
Will US stock indices maintain their strength?
Will the IBEX continue to show resilience?
Will investors turn back to gold as a safe haven?
And Bitcoin?
Well… Bitcoin will continue being Bitcoin.
In other words, it will probably do what the fewest people expect, at precisely the least convenient moment.
That is why it pays to observe before acting.
And in the meantime…
It is Sunday.
Time for breakfast.
Time to take the dog for a walk.
Carlitos is his name.
I didn’t give him that name. When we first met, I asked him what his name was and, looking at me with those eyes of someone who clearly has things perfectly figured out, he replied:
«Me? Carlitos.»
As if it were perfectly obvious that I should have known.
And Carlitos walked straight into my heart.
We’ll look at the sky, the sea and the mountains during our walk.
We’ll smell the bougainvillea and all the other flowers whose names I don’t know, but which smell like paradise as we walk along the seafront.
And Carlitos and I will talk about life, about his ongoing dispute with another little dog, and about his favourite ladies.
And I’ll tell him how my «patients» are getting on — the traders whose trading I’m currently diagnosing.
I suppose professional confidentiality isn’t really broken if you share it with your dog.
At least, that’s what I tell myself.
He brings me peace. A lot of peace.
See you tomorrow in front of the markets.
I also have a few thoughts on the economy in general — and on the economy of the household, which may be smaller but is much more important to all of us — on Canal Radio Málaga, at around 10:00, on Mondays.
So, if you fancy listening, you can hear some of the ideas Carlitos came up with during our walk.
He’s quite a little character, this dog.
