Key Takeaway:
Today’s Forex session was dominated by a broad US dollar decline, strong gains in commodity-linked currencies, and a risk-on market regime. Major economic data and central bank decisions set the tone for heightened volatility and clear trading opportunities heading into tomorrow.
Executive Summary
- US Dollar Weakness: The USD fell against most majors after a spike in US jobless claims and sticky inflation, reinforcing expectations for a Fed rate cut next week.
- Commodity Currencies Surge: AUD, NZD, and CAD outperformed, reflecting improved risk sentiment and stable commodity prices.
- ECB Holds, Turns Hawkish: The ECB kept rates steady but signaled a more hawkish stance, boosting the euro.
- Volatility Remains High: Market volatility is up 20% year-over-year, with strong moves in several pairs and no statistical outliers detected.
1. Major Currency Pair Performance
| Pair | Latest Price | Daily Change (%) | Signal | Risk Category |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| EUR/USD | 1.1736 | +0.32 | Buy | Medium |
| USD/JPY | 147.17 | -0.14 | Sell | Low |
| GBP/USD | 1.3577 | +0.38 | Strong Buy | Medium |
| AUD/USD | 0.6662 | +0.78 | Strong Buy | High |
| USD/CAD | 1.3841 | -0.14 | Buy | Low |
| USD/CHF | 0.7959 | -0.29 | Sell | Medium |
| NZD/USD | 0.5976 | +0.67 | Strong Buy | High |
Top Gainers:
- AUD/USD (+0.78%)
- NZD/USD (+0.67%)
- GBP/USD (+0.38%)
- EUR/USD (+0.32%)
Top Losers:
- USD/CHF (-0.29%)
- USD/JPY (-0.14%)
- USD/CAD (-0.14%)
2. Technical Analysis & Key Levels
| Pair | Support | Resistance | Technical Bias |
|---|---|---|---|
| EUR/USD | 1.163 | 1.177 | Bullish |
| GBP/USD | 1.345 | 1.360 | Bearish |
| USD/JPY | 146.70 | 148.50 | Range-bound |
| AUD/USD | 0.725 | Channel Top | Bullish |
| NZD/USD | Dynamic | 0.600 | Bullish |
- EUR/USD: Bullish breakout potential above 1.177.
- GBP/USD: Watch for a reversal if 1.345 support breaks.
- AUD/USD & NZD/USD: Momentum remains strong; watch for resistance tests.
3. Economic News & Market Drivers
- US CPI (Aug): +0.4% MoM (vs. 0.3% expected), +2.9% YoY.
- US Jobless Claims: 263K (vs. 235K expected) – highest since 2021.
- ECB: Rates unchanged at 2.00%, but President Lagarde’s hawkish tone lifted the euro.
- Fed Outlook: 91% probability of a 25bp rate cut at next week’s FOMC meeting.
- Risk Sentiment: Strong, with commodity currencies leading and safe havens lagging.
4. Statistical & Sentiment Analysis
- Mean Daily Change: +0.23%
- Volatility (Std Dev): 0.42%
- Risk-On Regime: Commodity currencies averaged +0.44%; safe havens averaged -0.22%.
- No Outliers: All major pairs moved within expected statistical bounds.
- Correlations:
- Strong positive: EUR/USD & GBP/USD, GBP/USD & AUD/USD, AUD/USD & NZD/USD.
- Negative: USD/JPY & AUD/USD.
5. Visual Market Overview
6. Trading Recommendations
- Strong Buy: GBP/USD, AUD/USD, NZD/USD – momentum likely to continue if risk sentiment holds.
- Caution: USD/JPY and USD/CHF – technical resistance and USD weakness may limit upside.
- Watch: EUR/USD for a breakout above 1.177; GBP/USD for support at 1.345.
7. Outlook for Tomorrow
- Focus: Fed rate cut expectations, further US labor data, and commodity price trends.
- Volatility: Expected to remain elevated; maintain disciplined risk management.
- Key Levels:
- EUR/USD: 1.177 resistance
- GBP/USD: 1.360 resistance
- AUD/USD: Watch for channel breakout
Summary Box:
The Forex market closed with a clear risk-on tone, commodity currencies outperforming, and the US dollar under pressure from weak labor data and dovish Fed expectations. Technicals favor further gains in AUD, NZD, and GBP, while EUR/USD eyes a breakout. Stay alert for volatility and central bank headlines in the next session.
El Mundo del Trading en los Mercados Financieros 