Key Takeaway:
This week saw sharp declines in global equities, a surge in gold, falling oil prices, and heightened volatility across forex and crypto—driven by weak US jobs data, aggressive new US tariffs, and anticipation of next week’s critical inflation and GDP releases. Expect a tense, data-driven start to next week, with markets highly sensitive to US CPI and ongoing Trump policy moves.
1. Executive Summary
Global markets experienced significant turbulence this week. US and European stocks posted their worst weekly losses in months, gold hit new highs, oil tumbled, and forex markets saw the dollar weaken after disappointing US jobs data. President Trump’s sweeping new tariffs and threats of further trade escalation added to the uncertainty. Looking ahead, next week’s US inflation data and global GDP releases will be pivotal in setting the market tone.
2. Market Overview: August 1–8, 2025
📈 Stock Markets
| Region | Index | Aug 8 | Weekly Change (%) | YTD Change (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| US /still open | S&P 500 | 6,238.01 | -2.4% | +6.1% |
| US /still open | Dow Jones IA | 43,588.58 | -2.9% | +2.5% |
| US /still open | Nasdaq Comp. | 20,650.13 | -2.2% | +6.9% |
| US/still open | Russell 2000 | 2,166.78 | -4.2% | -2.8% |
| EU | Euro Stoxx 50 | 5,336.26 | -2.7% | — |
| DE | DAX | 24,180.26 | -3.3% | — |
| FR | CAC 40 | 7,727.89 | -3.7% | — |
| UK | FTSE 100 | 9,120.80 | -0.6% | — |
- US & Europe: All major indices fell sharply, led by small caps (Russell 2000: -4.2%). The declines were triggered by weak US jobs data and the implementation of new US tariffs, which rattled global trade confidence .
💱 Forex
| Pair | Weekly Change (%) | Status/Commentary |
|---|---|---|
| GBP/USD | +0.55% | Steady after BoE rate cut |
| EUR/USD | +0.58% | Pressured by USD rebound, bullish bias |
| USD/JPY | -1.49% | Yen weakened, technicals suggest downside |
| GBP/JPY | +1.49% | GBP strongest against JPY |
| USD/CHF | +0.23% | CHF underperformed |
- Key Technicals:
- EUR/USD: Bullish, testing resistance at 1.1374; support at 1.16/1.15
- GBP/USD: Neutral-upward, resistance at 1.35/1.36; support at 1.34
- USD/JPY: Bearish consolidation, support at 146.75/146.00
Figure: Weekly Forex Performance & Technical Levels (Aug 1–8, 2025)
🪙 Gold
- Price: Rose from $3,351/oz to $3,386.92/oz (+1% weekly), briefly touching $3,431.80/oz.
- Drivers: Safe-haven demand on equity selloff, weak US jobs, and tariff escalation.
- Outlook: Remains in a bullish consolidation ($3,200–$3,500/oz); a break above $3,433 could trigger further gains.
🛢️ Oil
| Asset | Aug 1 | Aug 8 | Weekly Change (%) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Brent | $71.77 | $66.61 | -7.2% |
| WTI | $68.39 | $63.54 | -7.1% |
- Drivers: Weak US labor data, OPEC+ production increases, and trade uncertainty.
- Outlook: Range-bound ($60–$70/bbl), with downside risk if economic data disappoints.
₿ Crypto
- Bitcoin: Consolidated near $116,000–$118,000 after a sharp drop from $123,000+.
- Ethereum: Traded $3,800–$3,900.
- Sentiment: Initially rattled by tariffs and weak jobs, but rebounded on regulatory optimism (CFTC/SEC approvals, pro-crypto Trump policies).
- Outlook: Highly sensitive to US macro data and regulatory news; volatility remains elevated.
3. Major News & Market Drivers
🏛️ Trump-Driven Policy Shocks
- Tariffs: Sweeping new US tariffs (10–50% on >90 countries) took effect August 7, raising the average US tariff rate to its highest since the 1930s. Sectors like semiconductors and pharma face further threats .
- Rhetoric: Trump warned of a “Great Depression” if courts block tariffs, and nominated a dovish, pro-tariff Fed board member.
- Market Impact: Increased volatility, risk-off sentiment, and safe-haven flows into gold.
📉 Economic Data
- US Jobs: Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) missed badly (73,000 vs. 110,000 expected), fueling Fed rate cut bets and a dollar selloff.
- Global Growth: Weakness in US and European data, plus trade uncertainty, weighed on risk assets.
4. Key Economic Indicators Next Week (Aug 11–15, 2025)
| Date | Region | Indicator/Event |
|---|---|---|
| Aug 12 | US | Consumer Price Index (CPI, July) |
| Aug 12 | Australia | RBA Rate Decision |
| Aug 12 | UK | Labor Market Data |
| Aug 13 | Eurozone | Q2 GDP Flash Estimate, Employment, Germany HICP |
| Aug 14 | US | Producer Price Index (PPI, July), Jobless Claims |
| Aug 14 | UK | Q2 GDP (Prelim), Industrial Production, Trade |
| Aug 15 | US | Retail Sales, U. of Michigan Sentiment (Prelim) |
| Aug 15 | China | Key macroeconomic data |
Key Finding:
The most market-sensitive releases are US CPI (Aug 12), Eurozone/UK Q2 GDP (Aug 13–14), and the RBA policy decision (Aug 12). These will drive volatility and set the tone for risk assets.
5. Probable Scenario for the Start of Next Week
🕵️♂️ Scenario Analysis
- Macro Backdrop:
Markets are entering the week on edge, with heightened sensitivity to US inflation data and central bank signals. The sharp reversal in Fed rate expectations after the weak NFP has set the stage for a potential risk-on rebound if inflation data is soft, or renewed risk-off if inflation surprises to the upside. - Equities:
Likely to open cautiously, with a slight risk-on bias if US CPI is benign. However, any inflation surprise or further Trump-driven trade escalation could trigger renewed selling. - Forex:
- Dollar: Continued weakness if CPI is soft, supporting EUR/USD and GBP/USD.
- EUR/USD: Bullish bias, could test higher resistance if dollar remains under pressure.
- USD/JPY: Downside risk persists; yen may strengthen further on risk aversion.
- Gold:
Expected to remain well-bid above $3,350/oz. A break above $3,433/oz could trigger further gains, especially if risk-off sentiment persists. - Oil:
Downside risks remain due to weak demand signals and high inventories. Prices may stabilize if macro data surprises positively, but the bias is for continued softness. - Crypto:
Regulatory optimism and the prospect of Fed easing could support a rebound, especially if US CPI is soft. However, volatility will remain high, and any hawkish surprise or renewed risk aversion could trigger further liquidations.
6. Conclusion & Key Takeaways
Summary Box:
- Stocks: Sharp declines, especially in US and Europe, on weak jobs and tariff escalation.
- Forex: Dollar weakness, euro and pound strength, yen volatility.
- Gold: New highs on safe-haven demand.
- Oil: Down sharply, with demand concerns.
- Crypto: Volatile, but rebounding on regulatory optimism.
- Next Week: All eyes on US CPI, global GDP, and further Trump policy moves. Expect volatility and data-driven swings.
El Mundo del Trading en los Mercados Financieros 