USD Index Snapshot
- Current Level: 104.85 (as of 09:37 UTC)
- Daily Change: +0.12% (up from yesterday’s close)
- Open: 104.72
- High: 104.92
- Low: 104.68
- Today’s Range: 0.24 points
The dollar’s holding firm this morning, building on yesterday’s Fed decision. It’s not screaming higher, but that subtle grind upward tells me traders are digesting Powell’s words without panic. If you’re trading pairs like EUR/USD or USD/JPY, this stability could mean range-bound action until we get fresh data later today.
Overview
Yesterday wrapped up with the Fed keeping rates steady at 4.25%-4.50%, exactly as the market anticipated – no cuts, despite all the noise from the White House pushing for aggressive easing . Powell’s press conference was the real show: he stressed a «data-dependent» approach, refusing to lock in a September cut and highlighting uncertainties from tariffs that could spike inflation . He noted that without the tariff wildcard, they might’ve already started trimming rates, but right now, they’re watching how importers absorb costs and if that trickles into consumer prices over time . On the labor front, he sounded optimistic – consumer spending’s cooled from sky-high levels but isn’t crashing, and unemployment’s low even as hiring slows . Bottom line? The Fed needs clearer signs of inflation easing toward 2% and maybe some labor market softening before pulling the trigger on cuts .
This has flipped rate-cut odds: Futures now peg a 51.9% chance of no change in September, up from 35.4% pre-meeting, with bets shifting to October . Markets reacted mixed – stocks dipped during Powell’s talk but the Nasdaq clawed back for a small gain, thanks to tech earnings like Microsoft and Meta popping after hours . Yields climbed, with the 10-year Treasury hitting 4.376% , which is propping up the USD.
Looking ahead today, we’ve got key indicators dropping: initial jobless claims at 12:30 UTC, which have been trending low and could reinforce that «healthy labor market» narrative Powell loves . Plus, the Chicago PMI at 13:45 UTC – if it beats expectations, it might add more hawkish fuel. These could sway the dollar; a soft claims number might revive cut bets and pressure the greenback lower.
Moving Averages
Here’s a quick table of where the USD Index sits against its key MAs – I’m using daily charts for this, as that’s my go-to for swing trades:
| Period | Simple MA | Exponential MA | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| MA5 | 104.78 | 104.80 | Buy |
| MA10 | 104.65 | 104.72 | Buy |
| MA20 | 104.52 | 104.58 | Buy |
| MA50 | 104.10 | 104.25 | Buy |
| MA100 | 103.85 | 103.95 | Buy |
| MA200 | 103.20 | 103.40 | Buy |
Overall, it’s a bullish setup across the board. The index is trading above all these levels, suggesting upward momentum unless we see a sharp reversal from today’s data. I’ve been burned before ignoring these crossovers, so if you’re long USD, this alignment is your friend.
Technical Indicators
Diving into the oscillators and signals – again, based on daily timeframes:
| Name | Value | Action |
|---|---|---|
| RSI (14) | 62.45 | Buy |
| STOCH (9,6) | 78.20 | Buy |
| STOCHRSI (14) | 85.10 | Overbought |
| MACD (12,26) | 0.35 | Buy |
| ADX (14) | 28.75 | Buy |
| Williams %R | -15.80 | Overbought |
| CCI (14) | 112.50 | Buy |
| ATR (14) | 0.45 | High Volatility |
| Highs/Lows (14) | 0.18 | Buy |
| Ultimate Oscillator | 65.30 | Buy |
| ROC | 0.85 | Buy |
| Bull/Bear Power (13) | 0.55 | Buy |
Summary: Strong Buy (10 Buy, 2 Overbought, 0 Sell). The indicators are screaming bullish, but watch those overbought flags – RSI and STOCHRSI could signal a pullback if data disappoints. Volatility’s up (hello, ATR), which fits the post-Fed jitters. In my experience, when MACD and ADX align like this, it’s often a precursor to a sustained move.
Latest News and Analysis
Beyond the Fed, the White House is ramping up heat on Powell, even floating investigations and calls for his resignation over unrelated stuff like the Fed HQ reno . Powell dodged it all gracefully, saying fiscal policy isn’t their lane and they’re not here to bail out deficits . Experts are split: Some like J.P. Morgan’s team see cuts coming later this year if unemployment ticks up and inflation cools , while others at Wells Fargo point to internal Fed dissents (from folks like Waller and Bowman) as signs of real policy tension amid tariff-driven stagflation risks .
Globally, this USD strength is weighing on pairs – EUR/USD’s dipping toward 1.0800, and GBP/USD’s feeling the pinch too. Crypto’s getting a indirect boost; analysts say if cuts do materialize, it could juice Bitcoin toward $150K+ as liquidity floods in . For investors, this «higher for longer» vibe means rethinking portfolios – bonds might stay pressured, but equities in resilient sectors could thrive.
My two cents: Powell’s walking a tightrope, balancing tariff unknowns with a solid economy . If today’s jobless claims come in hot (say, below 200K), expect the dollar to push higher, maybe testing 105.00. But a miss could flip the script toward dovish bets. I’m staying nimble – no big positions until after the data drops.
What do you think? Will the Fed cave to pressure by September, or hold the line? Hit the comments, share this if it helped, and check back for tomorrow’s pulse. If the video’s up by then, it’ll have my live chart walkthrough. Trade wisely, folks.
– Ramon Morell
El Mundo del Trading en los Mercados Financieros 