Etiqueta: jackson hole

Hey network, as we gear up for Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s keynote at the Jackson Hole Economic Symposium today, it’s hard not to feel the weight of the moment. With markets on edge and the White House watching closely, this could be a pivotal speech—especially as it’s likely Powell’s last in this role before his term ends in May 2026 

If you’re in finance, policy, or just tracking the economy, let’s break it down: What might Powell say at 16:00 my time today, and why does it matter? (Quick note: That’s around 10:00 AM MT in Wyoming, streamed live for all to see.

First, a quick rewind on Powell himself. Appointed by Trump in 2018, he’s navigated some wild rides: the COVID shock, 40-year-high inflation in 2022, and aggressive rate hikes that defied recession predictions.

But 2025 has been tense—Trump’s back in office, slamming Powell as a «total loser» over unchanged rates amid tariffs and even probing Fed building costs (remember that hard-hat tour? Classic standoff) 

Powell’s stayed unflappable, emphasizing data over drama, but with his chairmanship winding down and no reappointment in sight, today’s address feels like a capstone Now, Jackson Hole: This isn’t just any conference. Hosted by the Kansas City Fed since 1982, it’s where central bankers, academics, and policymakers gather in Wyoming’s stunning Tetons to debate big ideas—often signaling Fed moves.

Past speeches have jolted markets; recall Powell’s 2024 talk previewing rate cuts that kicked off a 50bp slash in September.

This year, themed «Macroeconomic Policy in an Uneven Economy» (echoing 2021’s virtual pivot due to health concerns), it’s all about balancing a «muddled» dual mandate: maximum employment and stable prices amid tariffs, AI booms, and immigration shifts

Drawing from Powell’s 2021 speech transcript, expect echoes of that era’s themes—vigorous but uneven recovery, transitory inflation from supply bottlenecks, and labor market turbulence. Back then, he highlighted job gains averaging 832K over three months and inflation spikes in durables, deeming them temporary. Fast-forward to 2025: Inflation’s ticked up to 2.6% PCE from April’s 2.1% low, fueled by Trump’s tariffs, while July’s jobs report disappointed with just 73K adds and massive downward revisions (258K fewer than thought).

Unemployment’s at 4.3%, signaling slack, yet core prices rose 3.1% yearly—above the 2% target.Powell’s at an economic crossroads: Weak hiring screams for rate cuts (markets bet 83% on September), but sticky inflation and tariff ripples push back. He might signal a cautious 25bp cut, tempering expectations for a bolder 50bp move—anything hawkish could spark a 7-15% stock pullback into October, hitting rate-sensitive plays like homebuilders (D.R. Horton up 25% lately) or small caps.

Dovish? It could rally AI enablers like Amazon or Alphabet, per Evercore’s advice. And watch for nods to labor supply slowdowns from immigration policies, keeping the market «in balance» despite headlines.

This speech could pack a punch, as Reuters notes—Powell’s finales often do. With dual FOMC dissents last meeting favoring cuts, and Trump pressuring for lower rates, it’s a high-wire act.

Will Powell gamble on easing, or hold firm?.What’s your take? Will we see cuts in September, or more caution? Drop thoughts below—let’s discuss. S