Key Takeaway:
With S&P 500 and Dow Jones futures both modestly higher, strong global market sentiment, and positive earnings momentum, the US stock market is poised for a slightly positive open in about 2.5 hours. The probability of a green start is above 85%, but investors should remain alert for volatility as new economic data and earnings hit the wires.
🕒 Pre-Market Snapshot
| Index | Futures Change | Predicted Opening Change | Probability of Positive Open |
|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | +0.14% | +0.10% | 92.7% |
| Dow Jones | +0.09% | +0.07% | 86.3% |
🔍 What’s Driving the Market?
- Futures Action:
- S&P 500 futures are up +0.14% and Dow Jones futures +0.09%, signaling a modestly positive open.
- Global Markets:
- Asian and European indices closed broadly higher, buoyed by Fed rate cut hopes and upbeat earnings.
- Catalysts:
- Strong Q2 results from major US firms (Meta, ExxonMobil, Humana) and a surge in Palantir premarket (+6%) are fueling optimism.
- Progress in US-China trade talks and a new EU-US tariff deal are supporting risk appetite.
- Political news (Fed/BLS leadership changes) and last week’s weak jobs report have increased expectations for a September Fed rate cut.
- Technical Picture:
- Both indices remain in rising trend channels, with strong momentum and breadth, though the Dow shows early signs of caution on momentum indicators.
🟢 Opening Prediction
- S&P 500:
Likely to open up around +0.10% (95% confidence interval: -0.04% to +0.24%) - Dow Jones:
Likely to open up around +0.07% (95% confidence interval: -0.05% to +0.19%) - Sentiment:
Positive, with strong odds of a green open, but watch for quick shifts as new data and earnings are released.
🚦 What to Watch After the Open
- Earnings releases from Caterpillar, Disney, Eli Lilly, and AMD could drive sector moves.
- Economic data (ISM Services, jobless claims) may trigger volatility.
- Policy headlines (Fed, tariffs) remain a wild card.
El Mundo del Trading en los Mercados Financieros 