Key Takeaway:
Global markets are poised for a cautious but slightly positive open, with US and European futures edging higher and Asian indices showing strong gains. Investors are laser-focused on today’s US CPI release, which is expected to set the tone for monetary policy and risk sentiment worldwide. Sector rotation, central bank signals, and ongoing geopolitical tensions are all shaping the early market mood.
🏦 Pre-Market Futures Snapshot
| Index | Futures Value | Change | % Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dow Jones | 44,109.00 | +41.00 | +0.09% |
| S&P 500 | 6,400.50 | +4.00 | +0.06% |
| Nasdaq 100 | 23,628.25 | -1.25 | -0.01% |
| FTSE 100 | 8,802.50 | +25.00 | +0.28% |
| DAX | 24,081.34 | -81.52 | -0.34% |
| EuroStoxx 50 | 5,359.00 | +7.00 | +0.13% |
| Nikkei 225 | 42,747.38 | +926.90 | +2.22% |
| Hang Seng | 24,906.81 | +47.99 | +0.19% |
Asian markets led overnight, with the Nikkei 225 surging over 2% and the Hang Seng up modestly. European and US futures are mixed but generally positive, reflecting cautious optimism ahead of key data.
📰 Latest News & Market Drivers
- US CPI in Focus: The July Consumer Price Index (CPI) is the main event today (8:30 am ET). Consensus expects a 0.2% MoM rise for headline CPI and 0.3% for core CPI. This data will be pivotal for Fed rate cut expectations and could trigger significant market moves.
- Central Bank Watch: The Fed, ECB, and BoE are all in data-dependent mode. The Fed is expected to hold rates steady for now, with markets pricing in a high probability of a cut later in 2025, contingent on inflation and labor data.
- Geopolitical Tensions: US-China trade disputes, the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict, and Middle East risks continue to weigh on sentiment, especially in energy and industrial sectors.
- Sector Rotation: Consumer Discretionary and Telecommunications are leading pre-market gains, while Energy and Consumer Staples are lagging. Tech is slightly lower despite ongoing AI optimism.
- Corporate Earnings: Key reports today include Sea Limited, Cardinal Health, H&R Block, and CAVA Group. The majority of S&P 500 companies have already reported, with 82% beating estimates and strong momentum in tech and communications.
🗓️ Economic Indicators to Watch Today
| Indicator | Period | Consensus | Previous | Release Time (ET) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CPI (MoM) | July | 0.2% | 0.3% | 8:30 am |
| Core CPI (MoM) | July | 0.3% | 0.2% | 8:30 am |
| NFIB Small Business Optimism | July | N/A | N/A | 6:00 am |
| Federal Budget Balance | July | N/A | $27.0B | 2:00 pm |
Market focus: A softer-than-expected CPI could reinforce bets on a September Fed rate cut, while a hot print may spark volatility and delay easing.
🔍 Sector & Earnings Highlights
| Sector | Pre-Market Change |
|---|---|
| Consumer Discretionary | +0.88% |
| Telecommunications | +0.47% |
| Technology | -0.53% |
| Energy | -0.81% |
| Consumer Staples | -1.06% |
- Notable earnings: Sea Limited, Cardinal Health, H&R Block, and CAVA Group are among the key names reporting today. Watch for post-earnings moves in these stocks.
🌏 Global Macro & Geopolitics
- Central Banks: The Fed, ECB, and BoE are all signaling caution, with limited rate cuts expected in the near term due to persistent inflation and global risks.
- Geopolitical Risks: US-China trade tensions, the Russia-Ukraine war, and Middle East instability remain key overhangs for global markets and commodities.
- Commodities: Oil prices are steady after recent volatility; gold is holding near highs as a safe-haven.
📊 Quick Summary
- Futures: US and European indices point to a cautious, slightly positive open.
- Asia: Strong session, led by Japan and Hong Kong.
- News: All eyes on US CPI, central bank signals, and sector rotation.
- Earnings: Key reports from Sea Limited, Cardinal Health, and others.
- Macro: Geopolitical risks and monetary policy remain in focus.
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El Mundo del Trading en los Mercados Financieros 