Categoría: mercados

🌅 Morning Markets Report – November 11, 2025


Key Takeaway:
Markets open with cautious optimism as the German Final CPI has already been published (in line with expectations), removing a key uncertainty for Europe. The focus now shifts to the German ZEW Economic Sentiment and the pivotal US CPI release, both likely to set the tone for the day across equities, FX, gold, and crypto.

📊 Market Dashboard: Current Prices & Sentiment

AssetPriceSentiment
DAX23,976Cautiously Bullish
S&P 5006,796Neutral/Bullish
EURUSD1.1558Neutral
Gold$4,131.60Bullish
BTC$105,472Neutral/Bullish

🗓️ Corrected Economic Calendar (CET)

  • 08:00 – Germany Final CPI:
    ✅ Published. YoY: 2.0% (in line), MoM: 0.0%.
    Market impact: Limited, already digested .
  • 11:00 – Germany ZEW Economic Sentiment:
    Forecast: 39.3 (prev. 38.8).
    Potential mover for DAX and EURUSD .
  • 14:30 – US CPI (October):
    Forecast: 3.0% YoY headline, 3.0% core.
    Main event for global markets; high volatility expected .
  • Central Banks:
    No scheduled ECB or Fed speeches, but monitor for unscheduled remarks.

🌍 Overnight Developments & Market Drivers

  • US Government Shutdown: Bipartisan deal imminent, boosting global risk appetite .
  • Central Banks: Fed maintains dovish tilt; ECB remains cautious and data-dependent .
  • Asia: Nikkei +1.26%, tech rebound leads gains, setting a positive tone for Europe .
  • Commodities: Gold holds near highs on safe-haven demand; oil steady.
  • Crypto: Bitcoin rebounds above $105,000, mirroring risk-on mood.

🔑 Asset-by-Asset Forecasts

DAX Index

  • Trend: Cautiously bullish, consolidating near record highs.
  • Key Levels: Support 23,800; resistance 24,100.
  • Intraday Outlook: Range-bound 23,800–24,100 until ZEW and US CPI. Upside on strong ZEW or soft US CPI; downside risk if US inflation surprises higher.

S&P 500 Index

  • Trend: Neutral to bullish, consolidating near highs.
  • Key Levels: Support 6,750; resistance 6,850.
  • Intraday Outlook: Range 6,750–6,850. Breakout possible on soft CPI; pullback if inflation is hot.

EURUSD

  • Trend: Neutral, consolidating near 1.16.
  • Key Levels: Support 1.1550; resistance 1.1600/1.1660.
  • Intraday Outlook: Range 1.1550–1.1600. Upside on weak US data or strong ZEW; downside on hot US CPI.

Gold

  • Trend: Bullish, supported by safe-haven flows and central bank demand.
  • Key Levels: Support $4,080; resistance $4,150.
  • Intraday Outlook: Bid above $4,080; breakout to $4,150+ if US CPI is dovish or risk-off returns.

Bitcoin (BTC)

  • Trend: Neutral to bullish, range-bound.
  • Key Levels: Support $103,000; resistance $108,000.
  • Intraday Outlook: Range $103k–$108k. Breakout possible on risk-on rally or positive crypto news; downside if macro data disappoints.

🗝️ Actionable Insights

  • DAX & S&P 500: Cautiously bullish, but volatility likely around ZEW and especially US CPI.
  • EURUSD: Range-bound, with breakout potential on data surprises.
  • Gold: Remains a favored hedge; upside likely if inflation data is soft.
  • BTC: Choppy, range-bound trading; monitor for breakout above $108,000.

Summary Box:

  • DAX and S&P 500: Bullish bias, but data-dependent
  • EURUSD: Neutral, watch for breakout
  • Gold: Bullish, safe-haven flows
  • BTC: Range-bound, breakout watch