We are entering the «danger zone» of the holiday week. Today is likely the last session with decent liquidity before desks empty out for Christmas Eve tomorrow. The trends remain intact (Weak Dollar, Strong Crypto/Gold), but volatility could spike due to thin order books.
Report Time: 10:51 CET (European Session)
The European session is quiet but firm. The Euro has successfully moved closer to the 1.18 breakout level overnight, signaling that the «anti-Dollar» trade is the dominant theme going into the holidays. Volume is already noticeably lower than yesterday, which means price moves could be exaggerated (less money needed to move the market).
1. 📸 Market Snapshot: Holding the Highs
Prices are drifting higher on low volume. The «Santa Rally» seems to be focusing on Assets vs. Cash rather than just stocks.
| Asset | Price Now (Live) | Intraday Var. | Morning Analysis |
| EUR/USD | 1.1795 | +0.05% | Confirmed Breakout. The pair is comfortable moving towards 1.1800. It seems traders are happy to hold Euros over the Christmas break. If surpassed, next resistance: 1.1830. |
| Gold (Spot) | $4,365.40 | +0.17% | Creeping Up. Gold is grinding higher. It’s a slow, steady climb as it tracks the weak Dollar. Support is now solid at $4,350. |
| Bitcoin (BTC) | $94,210.00 | +0.38% | Consolidating. After the weekend pump, BTC is taking a breather above $94k. It looks ready to attack $95k if US traders wake up with an appetite for risk. |
| DAX 40 | 24,105.00 | +0.10% | Sleepy. The German index is barely moving. Most institutional books are already closed for the year. |
2. 📉 The Risk of the Day: «Thin Markets»
Today is effectively the «Friday» of the week for institutional traders.
- The Trap: Spreads (the difference between buy and sell prices) will likely widen after lunch (13:00 CET).
- US Data: We are waiting for US PCE Inflation data (The Fed’s favorite measure) expected later today.
- Scenario: If the data surprises, the low liquidity could cause a «Flash» move (a sudden spike or drop of 50-100 pips in seconds).
3. 🎯 Strategy for Tuesday
- EUR/USD: The 1.1800 level is your «line in the sand». As long as price stays above this, the trend is bullish. If it dips below 1.1790, it might just be a lack of buyers rather than real selling pressure.
- Bitcoin: Watch the $95,000 psychological barrier. If it breaks today, the «Holiday FOMO» (Fear Of Missing Out) could drive retail investors to push it towards $100k over the Christmas break while institutions are away.
- Don’t overtrade: The best trade today might be no trade. The risk/reward ratio is poor due to the unpredictable liquidity.
El Mundo del Trading en los Mercados Financieros 