Autor: ramonmorell

Empty Books, Dangerous Hooks: The Psychology of the December Fade


1. S&P 500 Technical Levels (The Santa Rally Roadmap)

As we head into the final days of the year, the S&P 500 is trading in a very specific technical corridor. After reclaimng key «upper structure» levels today, the path toward a new all-time high is visible, but a clear «ceiling» remains.

  • Resistance 1 (The Pivot): $6,921$ – This is the level to watch. A sustained daily close above this point opens the door to the final psychological barrier of the year.
  • Resistance 2 (The Ceiling): $6,974$ – $7,016$ – This zone represents a significant technical ceiling. Historically, similar parallel channels have triggered corrections when price «tags» these upper bounds.
  • Support 1: $6,834$ – The primary near-term floor. As long as we stay above this, the «bullish float» remains intact.
  • Support 2: $6,421$ – The longer-term trendline breakout support. A drop here would signal the end of the current rally.

Trader’s Note: Market volume is thin this week. Expect «floaty» price action where the index drifts toward resistance on low conviction, which can lead to sharp volatility if any surprise headlines hit.

2. The «Magnificent Seven» 2025 Performance Review

2025 hasn’t been the «rising tide lifts all boats» year for tech that 2023 or 2024 was. Instead, it’s been a year of massive divergence. While the group is up roughly 25% as a whole, individual stories vary wildly.

3. Key Takeaway

The «Magnificent Seven» trade has become more of a «Magnificent One or Two» lately. The market is getting much pickier about which AI promises are actually turning into cash flow (like Alphabet) versus those still in the heavy spending phase (like Amazon).