Gold: $4,949 | Bitcoin: $76,725 | EUR/USD: 1.1823
Global Market Recap, Sector Rotation, Technical Analysis & Key Catalysts
Key Takeaway:
Markets closed with a cautiously optimistic tone as gold rebounded to $4,949, Bitcoin stabilized above $76,000, and EUR/USD hovered at 1.1823. Sector rotation favored energy, materials, and financials, while technology and defensives lagged. Investors are bracing for a pivotal week with major economic data, central bank decisions, and earnings set to drive volatility and cross-asset flows.
📊 Market Snapshot
| Asset / Index | Level | % Change | Trend / Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| Gold (XAU/USD) | $4,949 | +2.3% | Consolidating, safe-haven bid |
| Bitcoin (BTC/USD) | $76,725 | +1.1% | Stabilizing, ETF flows |
| EUR/USD | 1.1823 | -0.2% | Under pressure, policy divergence |
| S&P 500 | 6,917.81 | -0.84% | Mixed, sector rotation |
| DAX (Germany) | 24,780.79 | -0.07% | Flat, cyclicals lead |
| FTSE 100 (UK) | 10,314.59 | -0.26% | Defensive, energy up |
| CAC 40 (France) | 8,179.51 | +0.67% | Outperforming, banks strong |
| IBEX 35 (Spain) | 18,119.20 | +0.02% | Range-bound, banks/energy up |
| Nikkei 225 (JP) | 54,720.66 | +3.92% | All-time high, tech/financials surge |
| ASX 200 (AUS) | 8,857.1 | +0.89% | Materials led |
📰 Major Developments & Macro Drivers
- Central Banks:
- Fed: Maintains rates at 3.5%–3.75%, reiterates data-dependence. Markets await Friday’s NFP for clues on future policy. Kevin Warsh’s nomination as next Fed Chair adds uncertainty.
- ECB: Holds rates, signals patience amid fragile growth. Thursday’s flash CPI and policy meeting are key for EUR/USD direction.
- BoE: Decision due Thursday; committee split between hold and cut, with GBP and UK equities in focus.
- Economic Data:
- US ISM Manufacturing and PMI data show resilience in services, ongoing softness in manufacturing.
- Eurozone inflation and retail sales in line with expectations; manufacturing PMIs remain in contraction.
- Asian markets mixed: Nikkei hits record highs on tech/financials, China’s PMI signals ongoing challenges.
- Geopolitics:
- Middle East ceasefire remains fragile; Red Sea disruptions and New START treaty expiration keep risk premium in gold/energy.
- US-EU/China trade talks and tariff threats add volatility to industrials, tech, and FX.
🔄 Sector Rotation & Performance
| Sector | US Performance | EU Performance | Key Drivers |
|---|---|---|---|
| Energy | +3.29% | +1.90% | AI/data center demand, geopolitical risk |
| Materials | +2.00% | +1.40% | Infrastructure, commodity rally |
| Financials | +1.60% | +2.30% | Steepening yield curve, bank earnings |
| Industrials | +1.20% | +1.10% | Defense, infrastructure spending |
| Tech | -2.17% | -1.60% | Profit-taking, valuation reset |
| Healthcare | -1.00% | -0.70% | Regulatory headwinds, mixed results |
| Defensives | +1.71% | Flat/-0.2% | Rotation out, rising yields |
ETF flows confirm strong rotation into energy, materials, and financials, with outflows from mega-cap tech and defensives. Institutions overweight value and cyclicals; retail flows remain focused on AI, green energy, and digital assets.
📈 Technical Analysis Dashboard
| Asset | Price | Support Levels | Resistance Levels | Technical Bias | Critical Level |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gold | $4,949 | $4,834 – $4,900 | $4,996 – $5,144 | Cautiously constructive | $4,900 (Support) |
| Bitcoin | $76,725 | $75,000 – $75,907 | $80,503 – $82,154 | Searching for bottom | $75,000 (Support) |
| EUR/USD | 1.1823 | 1.1779 – 1.1800 | 1.1890 – 1.1925 | Under pressure | 1.1800 (Support) |
- Gold: Rebounding after sharp correction; $4,900–$5,000 is the key battleground. A break above $5,000–$5,144 could trigger further upside, while a drop below $4,900 exposes $4,834 and $4,760.
- Bitcoin: Consolidating after ETF-driven volatility; $75,000 is critical support. A close above $80,500 would signal a reversal.
- EUR/USD: Testing support at 1.1820; a break below 1.1800 risks further downside, while a rebound above 1.1890 would shift sentiment.
📊 Visual Market Dashboards
Global Market Performance Dashboard – February 3, 2026
Gold, Bitcoin, EUR/USD
📅 Upcoming High-Impact Catalysts
| Date | Event | Expected Impact | Market Focus |
|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 4 (Wed) | ADP Employment (US) | High | Labor market strength |
| Feb 4 (Wed) | Eurozone PPI | Medium | Inflation pressures |
| Feb 5 (Thu) | Jobless Claims (US) | High | Employment trends |
| Feb 5 (Thu) | ECB Rate Decision | Very High | Forward guidance, EUR/USD |
| Feb 5 (Thu) | Bank of England Decision | Very High | Rate cut expectations, GBP |
| Feb 6 (Fri) | Non-Farm Payrolls (US) | Very High | Fed policy path, USD, gold |
| Feb 6 (Fri) | Consumer Sentiment (US) | Medium | Consumer health |
Spotlight:
- US NFP (Fri): Strong jobs = dollar up, gold/crypto down; weak jobs = risk rally, gold/crypto up.
- ECB/BoE (Thu): Forward guidance and vote split will drive EUR, GBP, and global risk sentiment.
🧭 Strategic Outlook
- Upside Catalysts:
- Dovish central bank surprises, soft inflation/jobs data, renewed institutional flows into gold/crypto.
- Downside Risks:
- Hawkish Fed/ECB, strong US data, geopolitical escalation, trade tensions.
El Mundo del Trading en los Mercados Financieros 