DAX, FTSE 100, IBEX 35 | US Futures | EUR/USD, Gold, Bitcoin | Macro, Sector, and Technical Overview
Key Takeaway:
As European markets prepare to open, the global landscape is defined by gold’s historic surge to $5,578/oz, Bitcoin consolidating at $88,152, and EUR/USD rallying to 1.1985. US and European futures signal a cautious but optimistic tone, with sector rotation favoring technology, energy, and materials. Safe-haven flows remain robust amid easing US-EU trade tensions, strong earnings, and resilient macro data.
📊 Market Snapshot: Pre-Hours Prices & Sentiment
| Index / Asset | Pre-Hours Price | Change (%) | Session Range | Sentiment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DAX (Germany) | 24,892.0 | -0.17% | 24,848.53 – 25,020.22 | Slightly soft |
| FTSE 100 (UK) | 10,130.0 | -0.43% | 10,147.48 – 10,228.16 | Cautious |
| IBEX 35 (Spain) | 17,607.6 | -1.10% | 17,671.70 – 17,830.30 | Weak |
| S&P 500 Futures | 7,022.25 | +0.21% | 7,007.25 – 7,035.00 | Optimistic |
| Dow Jones Futures | 49,166.00 | 0.00% | 49,120.00 – 49,210.00 | Flat |
| Nasdaq 100 Futures | 26,261.00 | +0.40% | 26,120.00 – 26,320.00 | Tech-led |
| EUR/USD | 1.1985 | +0.45% | 1.1950 – 1.2042 | Bullish |
| Gold (XAU/USD) | $5,578.00 | +3.2% | $5,545 – $5,600 | Record high |
| Bitcoin (BTC/USD) | $88,152 | -0.7% | $88,000 – $90,200 | Consolidating |
📰 Major Market Drivers & Overnight News
- Central Banks:
- Fed: No rate change; cautious, data-dependent stance. Inflation moderating but above target. No imminent cuts signaled.
- ECB: Rates on hold; upbeat on growth, cautious on inflation. Euro supported by constructive outlook.
- Economic Data:
- US: Core PCE inflation at 2.9% YoY; labor market cooling but resilient. Consumer spending robust.
- Eurozone: Composite PMI at 51.5 (expansion); inflation steady at 2.0%; unemployment at 6.3% (near record lows).
- Geopolitics:
- US-EU Trade: Tensions ease after tariff pause and Greenland agreement, sparking risk-on flows and euro rally.
- Russia/Ukraine, Middle East: No major escalations, but risk premium persists.
- Earnings:
- Europe: SAP, ASML, LVMH, Burberry, Bankinter, and Iberdrola beat expectations. Mapfre issues profit warning.
- US: Tech giants deliver strong results, lifting Nasdaq futures.
- Commodities:
- Gold: New all-time high on safe-haven demand, central bank buying, and inflation fears.
- Bitcoin: Consolidating after profit-taking; ETF and institutional flows remain supportive.
🔄 Sector Rotation & Market Sentiment
| Sector | Current Trend | Drivers & Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Technology | Leading | AI/cloud earnings, US/Europe tech outperformance |
| Energy | Strong | Commodity rebound, infrastructure optimism |
| Materials | Strong | Metals/mining rally, supply constraints |
| Financials | Mixed | Banks up on earnings, insurers lag on profit warnings |
| Defensives | Lagging | Outflows from utilities, staples, and healthcare |
| Small Caps | Outperforming | Value and cyclical small caps lead broader rally |
Market Mood:
Risk-on flows into cyclicals and real assets, but persistent safe-haven demand for gold and Bitcoin signals ongoing macro caution.
💱 Cross-Asset Technicals & Key Levels
| Asset | Pre-Hours Price | Key Support | Key Resistance | Technical Outlook |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gold | $5,578.00 | $5,545 / $5,320 | $5,600 / $5,675 | Overbought, bullish; buy pullbacks, avoid chasing highs |
| Bitcoin | $88,152 | $88,000 / $86,000 | $90,000 / $94,000 | Range-bound; watch for breakout above $94K or breakdown below $86K |
| EUR/USD | 1.1985 | 1.1983 / 1.1779 | 1.2000 / 1.2092 | Bullish breakout; dips likely to be bought, 1.20 is key battleground |
- Gold: Powerful uptrend, but momentum is stretched; risk of short-term pullback if $5,600 is rejected.
- Bitcoin: Consolidating in a tight range; volatility breakout likely soon.
- EUR/USD: Broke out of multi-year triangle; above 1.20 opens path to 1.21–1.22.
🌍 Macro Themes & Outlook
- Safe-Haven Demand: Gold and Bitcoin at the forefront as investors hedge against inflation, policy uncertainty, and geopolitical risk.
- Sector Rotation: Flows favor technology, energy, and materials; defensives and financials lag.
- Currency Markets: Euro strength reflects improved European data and a weaker US dollar.
- Central Bank Policy: Fed, ECB, and BoE remain in a holding pattern; markets seek clarity on future moves.
- Geopolitics: Easing US-EU trade tensions support risk assets, but underlying risks remain.
El Mundo del Trading en los Mercados Financieros 