Markets closed out the week with a generally risk-on sentiment, largely driven by increasing investor confidence in a December Federal Reserve rate cut.1 Trading volumes were thinner than usual, especially in the US, due to the Thanksgiving holiday weekend.2
🌍 Major Stock Market Indices
US markets finished the abbreviated, post-Thanksgiving session with modest gains, capping a strong week for equities amid rate-cut optimism.3 European markets also ended the day mostly in positive territory, contributing to a strong month overall.4
| Index | Movement (Nov 28) | Weekly Change | Key Level / Note |
| S&P 500 (US) | Modest Gain (0.1%-0.3% est.) | Strong Gain | Ended a solid week amid rate-cut hopes. |
| Dow Jones Industrial (US) | Modest Gain (0.1%-0.3% est.) | Strong Gain | Low volume trading session. |
| STOXX Europe 600 (Europe) | Slightly Up (+0.25%) | Strong Gain (+2.55%) | Closed with its 5th highest value in history, up 5 consecutive days. |
| STOXX Europe 50 (Eurozone) | Up (est. +0.2%) | Strong Gain | Supported by rate cut expectations. |
💱 Forex and Commodities
The US Dollar (USD) traded cautiously and was generally softer against major pairs, continuing a broader weekly decline as rate-cut probabilities rose dramatically (now over 80% for a December cut).5
| Asset/Pair | Movement (Nov 28) | Key Factor |
| Gold (XAU/USD) | Strongly Up (Past $4,220/oz) | Rallied to a one-month high. Heavily supported by rising bets on a December Fed rate cut, which reduces the opportunity cost of holding the non-yielding asset. |
| EUR/USD | Steady/Slightly Down (Around 1.1596) | Supported by broad USD weakness, but capped by weak Eurozone sentiment. |
| GBP/USD | Held Firm (Near 1.3230) | Supported by continued USD weakness and improved UK fiscal sentiment. |
| USD/JPY | Down (Approaching 156.00) | Dropped as hawkish Bank of Japan comments provided slight support to the Yen, along with broad USD weakness. |
📰 Major Market News
- Fed Rate Cut Bets Solidify: The primary market driver is the increased conviction in a 25 basis-point Federal Reserve rate cut in December.6 This shift has been fueled by recent dovish comments from Fed officials and the view that key potential new appointees would favor easing.7
- CME Group Outage: Trading on the world’s largest exchange operator, CME Group, was briefly disrupted on Friday due to a technical outage, halting trading on its popular currency and futures platforms.8 This likely contributed to the thin liquidity and low volatility during the truncated US session.
- European Stability: French inflation data held steady, and third-quarter growth was confirmed, keeping the European Central Bank (ECB) on track to keep rates unchanged for now.9
🗓️ Incoming News and Economic Indicators (Early Next Week)
The start of the new month (December) brings a slew of high-impact economic data, particularly from the US, which will heavily influence market direction, especially concerning the Fed’s December meeting.
Key US Economic Indicators
| Date (Approx.) | Indicator | Significance | Expected Market Impact |
| Mon, Dec 1 | ISM Manufacturing PMI | A key gauge of the health of the manufacturing sector. A reading below 50 indicates contraction. | A weak reading could increase rate-cut probability, pressuring the USD and boosting Gold/Equities. |
| Wed, Dec 3 | ADP Employment Report | Private sector employment change (precursor to Non-Farm Payrolls). | Indicates the health of the US labor market. A softer number supports Fed rate-cut hopes. |
| Wed, Dec 3 | ISM Services PMI | Gauge of the dominant services sector. Prices Paid component is closely watched for inflation insight. | Provides a holistic view of the economy. Any sign of weakness or cooling inflation is USD-negative. |
Key International Events & Data
| Date (Approx.) | Event/Indicator | Region | Significance |
| Sun, Nov 30 | OPEC+ Meeting | Global/Oil | The market expects a decision to hold production levels, though any surprise change could move oil prices and, consequently, energy-sensitive currencies/stocks. |
| Mon/Tue | HICP Inflation Data | Eurozone | Core inflation figures are critical for shaping expectations for the next ECB decision. |
| Mon/Tue | Swiss Inflation Data | Switzerland | Closely watched ahead of the Swiss National Bank (SNB) decision. |
🔮 Market Outlook for Early Next Week
The focus will immediately shift to the US manufacturing and services data, as well as the ADP jobs report. Strong data (suggesting a robust economy) could temper December rate-cut expectations, leading to a potential USD recovery and a pullback in Gold and Equities. Weak data would reinforce the current dovish sentiment, likely continuing the trend of a weaker USD and further gains for Gold and stocks.
El Mundo del Trading en los Mercados Financieros 