Key Takeaway:
Global markets are waking up with a sense of cautious optimism. Equities are holding their ground, crypto is regaining its swagger, and the macro backdrop is steady—though the world remains on edge, watching for the next headline to tip the balance.
1. Global Markets: Resilience with a Dash of Nerves
Let’s start the week with a look at the world’s financial heartbeat. The major indices are painting a picture of quiet strength:
| Region | Index | Latest Value | Daily Change | 2025 YTD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| US | S&P 500 | 6,664.01 | +0.53% | +13.6% |
| Nasdaq 100 | 24,817.95 | +0.65% | +18.3% | |
| Dow Jones | 46,190.61 | +0.52% | +9.0% | |
| Europe | DAX (Germany) | 24,048.24 | +0.91% | +20.1% |
| FTSE 100 (UK) | 9,391.47 | +0.39% | +13.7% | |
| IBEX 35 (Spain) | 15,601.10 | -0.29% | +33.6% | |
| Asia | Nikkei 225 | 49,185.50 | +3.37% | +25.1% |
| Hang Seng | 25,247.10 | -2.48% | +28.7% |
- US stocks are quietly grinding higher, with tech still in the driver’s seat.
- Europe is mostly green, though Spain’s IBEX takes a breather after a stellar run.
- Asia is a mixed bag: Japan’s Nikkei is on fire, while Hong Kong and Shanghai are digesting recent gains.
2. Crypto: Bitcoin Bounces Back
Bitcoin is back in the headlines, trading around $111,099—up 4% in the last 24 hours. After a volatile summer and a record high just days ago, the mood is cautiously bullish. Ethereum is also on the move, up over 4% and holding above $4,000. The broader crypto market cap is pushing $3.77 trillion, with sentiment improving as institutional interest returns and regulatory clouds begin to clear.
3. Forex: Waiting for the Next Cue
The big currency pairs are in a classic holding pattern:
- EUR/USD is steady above 1.1650, with traders watching for a break toward 1.1700 or a slip back to 1.1580. The mood is neutral, shaped by global risk sentiment and US political headlines.
- GBP/USD is calm above 1.3400, awaiting fresh UK inflation data. The technicals hint at a possible bounce, but fundamentals are a headwind.
- USD/JPY is hovering near 151.00, caught between Japanese political shifts and diverging central bank policies. The pair remains choppy, with no clear direction until the next policy signal.
4. Macro & Central Banks: Business as Usual
No major economic data or central bank bombshells in the past 24 hours. The US Treasury held its regular bill auctions, and the Fed’s latest balance sheet update showed no surprises. Fed Governor Waller’s remarks were closely watched but didn’t move the needle. The market is in “wait and see” mode, scanning for the next big macro catalyst.
5. Geopolitics: On Alert, Not in Panic
The world remains a chessboard of risk:
- Middle East: After US airstrikes on Iran, markets are watching for any escalation. Oil is stable for now, but a single headline could change that in a heartbeat.
- Russia-Ukraine: The conflict continues to cast a shadow over Europe, especially energy and manufacturing.
- Asia: Tensions in India-Pakistan and ongoing conflicts in Africa are keeping risk managers on their toes.
Despite the noise, markets are showing remarkable resilience—investors are alert, but not running for the exits.
📝 Ramón’s Wrap-Up
This morning, the markets feel like a seasoned marathon runner—steady, focused, and pacing themselves for whatever comes next. There’s no euphoria, but no panic either. Investors are alert, scanning the horizon for the next macro or geopolitical twist, but for now, the tone is constructive. If you’re managing risk, today is a day to stay nimble, keep your eyes on the big picture, and remember: in markets, calm waters often hide strong undercurrents.
El Mundo del Trading en los Mercados Financieros 