Key Takeaway:
European stocks finished the session mixed, with the FTSE 100 outperforming as continental indices slipped on renewed trade and geopolitical concerns. US markets are holding near record highs in late trading, led by tech and consumer discretionary stocks, as investors brace for tomorrow’s pivotal US CPI report—a potential catalyst for global markets.
🏦 European Markets – Closing Snapshot
| Index | Closing Price | % Change |
|---|---|---|
| STOXX Europe 600 | 546.76 | -0.06% |
| FTSE 100 | 9,129.71 | +0.37% |
| DAX | 24,081.34 | -0.34% |
| CAC 40 | 7,698.52 | -0.60% |
- The FTSE 100 outperformed, buoyed by gains in retail and financials, while the DAX and CAC 40 slipped on weakness in industrials and luxury names. The pan-European STOXX 600 ended nearly flat, reflecting investor caution ahead of key US data and ongoing global trade uncertainty.
US Markets – Trend Before the Close
| Index | Latest Level | % Change |
|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | 6,401.68 | +0.19% |
| Dow Jones | 44,152.42 | -0.05% |
| Nasdaq Comp. | 21,540.17 | +0.42% |
- The S&P 500 and Nasdaq are both trading near all-time highs, with the Nasdaq leading on renewed tech strength. The Dow is slightly lower, weighed by weakness in energy and healthcare.
- Market tone is constructive, with indices stabilizing after last week’s volatility and a sharp sell-off on disappointing labor data.
📰 News & Market Drivers
- US CPI Anticipation: Markets are in a holding pattern ahead of Tuesday’s US Consumer Price Index (CPI) release. Consensus expects July headline CPI at 2.8% YoY and core CPI at 3.0–3.1% YoY, with tariffs expected to add upward pressure.
- Fed Rate Cut Odds: The probability of a September Fed rate cut remains above 85%, bolstered by last week’s soft jobs data and dovish comments from several Fed officials.
- Tariffs & Trade Policy: New US tariffs on EU, Swiss, and Indian goods are in effect, but exemptions for major tech firms (Apple, Samsung, TSMC) and a new chip export deal (Nvidia, AMD) have helped support tech stocks.
- Corporate Earnings: Q2 earnings season remains strong, with 82% of S&P 500 companies beating estimates. Notable movers today include Micron Technology and AMC Entertainment on upbeat results.
- Commodities: Brent crude is trading at $66.73 (+0.21%), while gold is steady at $3,356.30/oz (+0.10%), reflecting a cautious risk environment.
- European Data: Eurozone retail sales beat expectations, but German industrial output fell 1.9% in June, raising concerns about the region’s growth momentum.
🗓️ Economic Calendar – Key Events for Tomorrow
| Time (ET) | Event | Consensus/Forecast | Market Impact |
|---|---|---|---|
| 6:00 | NFIB Small Business Optimism Index | N/A | Moderate |
| 8:30 | US Consumer Price Index (CPI) (July) | 2.8% YoY, 0.2% MoM | High |
| 10:00 | Fed Speaker: Thomas Barkin | — | Moderate |
| 10:30 | Fed Speaker: Jeffrey Schmid | — | Moderate |
Focus: The US CPI release is the headline event. A softer print could reinforce expectations for a September Fed rate cut, while a surprise to the upside may spark volatility and delay easing.
🔎 Analyst Insights
- Most analysts expect tomorrow’s CPI to confirm the disinflation trend, with a 0.2–0.3% monthly increase. Tariffs are expected to contribute about 0.12% to the monthly rise. A result in line with or below consensus would likely bolster the case for a Fed rate cut as soon as September. However, a higher-than-expected reading could unsettle markets and push yields higher.
📊 Quick Summary
- Europe: Mixed close—FTSE 100 up, DAX and CAC 40 down on trade and geopolitical caution. STOXX 600 flat.
- US: Indices holding near record highs pre-close, led by tech and strong earnings; market stabilizing ahead of CPI.
- News: US CPI anticipation, Fed rate cut odds, new tariffs, and upbeat earnings shape sentiment.
- Tomorrow: All eyes on US CPI—potentially the key driver for global markets this week.
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El Mundo del Trading en los Mercados Financieros 