Keep an Open Mind – But Not So Open That Your Brain Falls Out in These Markets

Good afternoon, friends and fellow market enthusiasts!

As Richard Feynman once quipped – that brilliant physicist known for his work in quantum mechanics and a knack for ironic wisdom – we should keep an open mind, but not so open that our brains fall out.

In the wild world of financial trading, where I’ve spent the last 35 years immersed as my way of life, starting from my days at Citibank as a credit analyst and course instructor on all things finance, this rings especially true.

Especially now, with trade tensions bubbling and economic data on the horizon.

Today, from my perch as a trader, lecturer at UNED for Financial Trading, and consultant, I’m sharing my take on what might shake up the markets next week – stocks, forex, commodities, crypto, and fixed income.

We’ll look at expert views, key economic calendars from spots like FXStreet and Investing.com, and yes, keep an eye on any curveballs from Trump.

Remember, this is just my perspective after decades in the game; always do your homework or join one of my courses or one-to-one sessions, like the upcoming four-month online course on trading the financial markets, running from February to May next year at UNED, with live and recorded classes for all levels.

Let’s dive in, shall we? Markets are like life, as Einstein might say: you can see them as nothing miraculous or everything as a miracle. Next week, miracles or mishaps could come from data and decisions alike.

The Economic Pulse: Indicators That Could Jolt the Markets

Drawing from the trusty calendars on FXStreet.com and Investing.com – tools I often reference in my lectures – here’s the data lineup that might make or break trends. These aren’t just numbers; they’re the heartbeat of global economies, especially with tariffs lurking like uninvited guests.

• Monday, August 4: Kick off with the US ISM Manufacturing PMI for July, eyed at about 48.5 – still in contraction territory, which could rattle stocks if it shows tariffs biting harder into factories. Eurozone CPI flash could nudge forex, too, if inflation perks up unexpectedly.
• Tuesday, August 5: US Factory Orders might dip 0.2%, a subtle sign of trade war seepage – keep this in mind for commodities.
• Wednesday, August 6: US ISM Services PMI around 51.0; if it falters, bonds might catch a bid as folks bet on Fed moves. China’s Caixin Services PMI could sway oil and metals if demand looks wobbly.
• Thursday, August 7: US Initial Jobless Claims at 215K – a labor litmus test; hot numbers might keep the dollar firm, complicating rate cut hopes.
• Friday, August 8: US PPI up 0.2% MoM? Tariff-driven cost pushes could heat inflation talks, impacting everything from crypto to yields. Canadian jobs data might stir USD/CAD.

No big weekend drops, but any off-hours tweets or statements could echo into Monday. These calendars, with their technical insights, are gold for traders – much like the sessions I run, emphasizing live analysis.

Stocks: Riding the Tariff Rollercoaster

After recent climbs despite the noise, experts are cautious. I’ve seen cycles like this in my many years – tariffs create uncertainty, but data like PMIs could trigger pullbacks. S&P might flirt with 5,500; weak services numbers? Expect a dip as investors ponder Fed’s next play amid global frictions.

Forex: Currencies Dancing to Data and Drama

Pairs like EUR/USD or USD/JPY. They’ll swing on inflation and PMIs. Dollar could strengthen if US figures shine, but Trump’s trade barbs might turn it into a safe-haven frenzy. GBP/USD watches UK GDP – a slowdown coming? More Brexit echoes in a tariff-twisted world.

Commodities: Demand vs. Duties

Gold as a hedge. Absolutely, if uncertainty reigns – tariffs are seeping in, per the pros. Oil around $75. China’s PMI could pressure it if demand sags. Metals like copper, trade talks could crush or lift them.

Crypto: The Wild Card in Risky Waters

Bitcoin testing a base around $113,5K$? It often mirrors stocks, so macro risks from data or Trump could spark volatility. Ethereum? Technical bounces possible, but only if broader sentiment holds – I’ve lectured on how crypto ties to global flows.

Fixed Income: Yields and Safe Havens

Treasury yields at 4.2% for the 10-year? Jobless claims and PPI will dictate – hot inflation from tariffs is highly forecast. Yields up. Weak data? Flight to bonds. It’s the steady play in choppy seas.

Trump’s Potential Wild Cards: The Elephant in the Room

Ah, and Trump – his moves on tariffs or China could be the real market-mover. Past pauses sparked rallies, but ongoing threats fuel stagflation fears. No weekend announcements yet. Monday opens could be fireworks. As Feynman might say, keep that mind open, but grounded.

There you have it – my weekly musings from years of trading and teaching. What’s your bet on the big mover? Comment below, or check out my LinkedIn for more chats. Until next time, trade smart and see the miracles in the markets.

— Ramon Morell
Published: August 3, 2025